> This is the markdown version of https://www.classet.ai/blog/holiday-hiring-2026 > Learn more at https://www.classet.ai ![Low-poly illustration of a warehouse with boxes stacked on shelves, winding conveyor lines, and pale blue panels of winter light](/_next/image?url=%2Fimages%2Fblog%2Fholiday-hiring-2026.png&w=3840&q=75) # Holiday Hiring 2026: Fewer Seasonal Jobs Won't Make Q4 Easier Challenger forecasts about 450,000 seasonal retail jobs for holiday hiring 2026, the fewest in years. Here's why the race for applicants gets harder, and how to fix the phone screen inside the ATS you already run. [![Paul Jones](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.basehub.com%2Fe0b5701f%2F6599306507912123f90f150a8bfaaf6c%2Fscreenshot-2026-01-28-at-10.53.16-am.png%3Fwidth%3D100%26height%3D100%26quality%3D100&w=96&q=75) Paul JonesHead of Growth at Classet ](/blog/authors/paul-jones) October 5, 2026 Hiring Tips, Guides & Insights Holiday hiring 2026 looks like the quietest season in almost two decades, and that's exactly why it's easy to get wrong. Challenger, Gray & Christmas [forecasts about 450,000 seasonal retail jobs](https://www.challengergray.com/blog/2026-holiday-hiring-outlook-after-lowest-season-since-2008-will-retailers-stock-up-on-workers/) this quarter, down from 461,500 in 2025, which was already the lowest season since 2008. Fewer slots sounds like an easier quarter for talent acquisition, but most employers will open their smaller batches of reqs in the same six weeks. The applicants who are ready to work will go to whoever calls them back first, and at most enterprise retailers and distributors that call sits in the ATS queue for days. Quick answer Holiday hiring 2026 is forecast at about 450,000 seasonal retail jobs, per Challenger, Gray & Christmas, down from 461,500 in 2025. Hiring is slow across the economy, so applicants are available, but strong ones accept the first real offer. The biggest delay in seasonal time-to-hire is the phone screen. Running AI phone interviews inside your existing ATS (Workday, iCIMS, UKG, Dayforce) lets you reach applicants the moment they apply without adding recruiter seats. ## What is the holiday hiring forecast for 2026? Challenger's September 23 outlook puts 2026 seasonal retail hiring at roughly 450,000 jobs. A few retailers have announced numbers: Spirit Halloween plans to hire 52,000 associates, Michaels more than 10,000, and Bass Pro Shops and Cabela's 4,000. The biggest seasonal employers had not. As of the outlook, Amazon (historically about 250,000 seasonal hires), Target (about 100,000), and Kohl's (about 90,000) had made no 2026 announcements, and neither had UPS, FedEx, or USPS. Warehousing is softer too. Challenger counts 266,500 transportation and warehousing positions added in Q4 2025, down 12% from 2024 and the lowest fourth quarter since 2018. Andy Challenger's read is that retailers are "leaning on automation, existing associates, and on-demand pools before hiring." For most of you, that means a smaller seasonal class, hired later than usual, with less room for a slow screening process. ## Why fewer seasonal jobs don't make Q4 hiring easier The BLS [August JOLTS release](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm) shows a hires rate of 3.3% and a quits rate of 1.9%, with 7.1 million openings and layoffs at 1.0%. Indeed Hiring Lab economist Cory Stahle [summed it up](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/09/29/august-2026-jolts-report/) as "low hiring and even lower layoffs and quits." The [September jobs report](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm), released October 2, showed payrolls up just 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2% and little change in retail trade or transportation and warehousing. Here's what that means for a seasonal req: - **Applicants are out there,** and people who want seasonal work apply to several employers in the same week. - **A candidate with a confirmed start date and a shift schedule stops looking.** Low quits mean people hold on to the job they land. - **Reqs open late and all at once,** so a two-day delay to first contact can hand your applicants to a competitor who called that afternoon. - **Recruiter capacity doesn't stretch in October.** Most TA teams can't add seats for a six-week spike. Your constraint this year is speed to the first conversation, and the first team to call gets the hire. ## Where does seasonal time-to-hire leak? Seasonal funnels at enterprise retailers and distributors tend to leak in the same places. Treat the delays below as common patterns rather than benchmarks, and check them against your own ATS reports. Stage Typical delay What causes it Fix Application to first contact 1 to 4 days Recruiters work the queue in batches between other reqs AI phone interview triggered on application First contact to completed screen 2 to 5 days Phone tag, voicemail, calls only during business hours Calls and retries at any hour; text and email follow-ups Screen to hiring manager review 1 to 3 days Notes live in a recruiter's head or a spreadsheet Summary, transcript, and recording written back to the ATS record Must-have checks Hidden Shift, age, or license gaps found late in the process Knockout questions asked on the first call New req setup 1 to 2 days per batch Each seasonal req gets configured by hand Rules that attach a script to matching jobs automatically The first two rows are where most of the time goes, and they're the ones a bigger recruiting team can't fix in October. About half of applicants apply outside business hours, so even a fully staffed team starts every morning behind. ## How do AI phone interviews work inside an enterprise ATS? Classet ATS Sync puts AI phone interviews inside the ATS you already run, so your recruiters and hiring managers keep working in the same system. It works with 95+ ATS platforms, including Workday, iCIMS, UKG Ready, Dayforce, Greenhouse, and Paylocity. Joy, Classet's AI recruiter, calls candidates the moment they apply, 24/7, asks your questions, and sends your team the summary, recording, and transcript. For a seasonal program, four parts of [ATS Sync](/product/joy-sync-ats-plugin) matter most: 1. **Triggers per job.** Joy can call on application, when a candidate reaches a stage, or when a tag is added. Seasonal warehouse reqs usually trigger on application. 2. **Write-back.** The summary, transcript, and recording land on the candidate record in your ATS, so hiring managers review them where they already work. 3. **Knockouts that move candidates.** Ask must-haves on the call, such as weekend availability, lifting requirements, or a forklift certification. Knockout results can move a candidate to a stage you configure. Nothing is rejected by software. Your team decides who moves forward. 4. **Job Automations.** Seasonal reqs open in batches. When jobs sync from the ATS and match a rule (say, any title containing "Seasonal Warehouse Associate" in your Midwest DCs), the script is attached and Joy turns on. Go-live takes one to two weeks, longer for Workday and Dayforce, and no engineers are needed on your side. Pricing for ATS-integrated plans starts at $1,995 a month, scoped in a discovery call, with no per-seat or integration fees. Our post on [enterprise AI recruiting deployment time](/blog/enterprise-ai-recruiting-software-deployment-time) goes deeper on what that rollout involves. Phone works for this audience because it asks so little of the candidate. A warehouse applicant on a break can take a two-minute call without a camera or a quiet room. Across 10,167 post-interview ratings, 88% of candidates rated their Classet interview positively, and under 1% opt out. ## A Q4 seasonal hiring checklist, week by week Use this if your seasonal reqs haven't opened yet, or if they're open and the queue is already growing. **Week of October 5: decide what the first call has to answer.** Write five to eight questions per role family: availability by shift, start date, transportation, physical requirements, and any license. Mark which ones are knockouts, and keep the call to a few minutes. **Week of October 12: connect the ATS and set rules.** Pick the trigger for each job family and define the Job Automation rules that match your seasonal req titles and locations. Decide which stage a failed knockout moves to and who reviews it. If you're on Workday or Dayforce, start now to leave room for the longer setup. **Week of October 19: pilot on one region.** Turn Joy on for one distribution center or district. Have hiring managers review summaries in the ATS for a week and tune the questions. **Weeks of October 26 to November 9: roll out as batches open.** As new reqs sync from the ATS, the rules attach the script automatically. Track time from application to completed screen, not just time-to-fill. **Weeks of November 16 to December 14: run backfills.** Expect some no-shows and early quits once shifts start. Keep Joy on for backfill reqs so replacements get called the moment they apply, including over Thanksgiving weekend. **January: read the numbers.** Compare screen completion, time-to-offer, and 30-day retention by location, and use them as your baseline for next year. For the full seasonal playbook beyond the phone screen, see our [complete guide to seasonal hiring](/blog/complete-guide-seasonal-hiring) and the [time-to-hire benchmarks for hourly roles](/blog/time-to-hire-hourly-roles). Industry setups are on our [warehouse](/use-cases/warehouse) and [retail](/use-cases/retail) pages. ## Common questions ### How many seasonal workers will retailers hire in 2026? Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecasts about 450,000 seasonal retail jobs for the 2026 holiday season, down from 461,500 in 2025. The 2025 total was already the lowest since 2008. As of September 23, Amazon, Target, and Kohl's had not announced 2026 seasonal hiring numbers. ### Is seasonal warehouse hiring down in 2026? Challenger counts 266,500 transportation and warehousing jobs added in Q4 2025, down 12% from 2024 and the lowest fourth quarter since 2018. UPS, FedEx, and USPS had not announced 2026 plans as of late September. September 2026 BLS data showed little change in transportation and warehousing employment. ### Can AI phone interviews work with Workday or iCIMS? Yes. Classet ATS Sync works with Workday, iCIMS, UKG Ready, Dayforce, and more than 95 ATS platforms. Joy can call on application, at a stage, or on a tag, and writes the summary, transcript, and recording back to the candidate record. Go-live takes one to two weeks, longer for Workday and Dayforce. ### Does the AI reject seasonal candidates? No. Joy asks your questions and reports the answers. Knockout results can move a candidate to a stage you configure, but nothing is rejected by software, and your team decides who moves forward. Joy reads only the call transcript, never a résumé or the sound of someone's voice. ## Key points - Challenger forecasts about 450,000 seasonal retail jobs for holiday hiring 2026, down from 461,500 in 2025, the lowest season since 2008. - August JOLTS shows a 3.3% hires rate and 1.9% quits rate, and September payrolls grew just 29,000. Applicants are available, and they take the first real offer. - The biggest seasonal time-to-hire leak is between application and a completed phone screen. - ATS Sync runs AI phone interviews inside Workday, iCIMS, UKG, or Dayforce, with write-back, knockouts that move candidates to a stage, and Job Automations for batch reqs. - Set up screening before reqs open, pilot on one region, and keep it running for backfills through December. If your seasonal reqs open this month, [book a demo](/demo?ref=blog-holiday-hiring-2026-bottom) to see Joy screen applicants inside your ATS. [![Paul Jones](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.basehub.com%2Fe0b5701f%2F6599306507912123f90f150a8bfaaf6c%2Fscreenshot-2026-01-28-at-10.53.16-am.png%3Fwidth%3D100%26height%3D100%26quality%3D100&w=128&q=75) Paul Jones Head of Growth at Classet Paul comes from an operator background running an Alpine-owned company, and brings firsthand experience with the hiring challenges Classet was built to solve. He's driven by a belief that the right technology can make meaningful work more accessible. ](/blog/authors/paul-jones) Follow Classet in Google Add classet.ai as a preferred source and our hiring research is more likely to show up in your Top Stories and AI Overviews. 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